Last week, Wimal Weerawansa’s hard hitting speech at a JVP seminar held in Matara, saw an escalation of the antagonism between the JVP and the UNP-SLFP(M) coalition. This is a significant development which may well decide the political future of this country for the next three years. After the defection of Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathy Sooriyarachchi to the opposition and the subsequent signing of their MOU with the UNP, there was the expectation that the fall of the government was imminent, with more crossovers expected.

When the CWC ministers resigned from their portfolios over a trivial personal affair, this expectation was given a new impetus. The stumbling block however was the JVP which could tip the balance either way with their 38 MPs. We pointed out in this column that despite anything the UNP, SLFP(M), or the CWC and SLMC could do, the final arbiter of the immediate political future of this country would be the JVP because without their support the government could not be defeated in parliament.

JVP furious

However, given the ideological and political differences the JVP has with the UNP, they showed no signs of wanting to co-operate with the UNP-SLFP(M) combine. We have pointed out on previous occasions that the JVP was in a peculiar position because they are a ‘second force’ within the opposition. They have to function as an opposition party but in such a way that the benefit of their activities will not go to the main opposition party. Because of this, the UNP and the JVP are much greater headaches to each other than either of them are to the government. The JVP can’t do anything for fear that the benefit of their activity would go to the UNP. On the other hand, nothing that the UNP does will be of any use so long as the JVP does not join them. Over the past few weeks, the UNP would have been under tremendous stress because with political power seemingly within their grasp, the refusal of the JVP to fall in with them was holding everything up.

Mangala Samaraweera’s MOU with the UNP guarantees him the deputy premier’s post if he can get 18 members from the SLFP to defect to the UNP. But he cannot get anyone to defect to the opposition because without the support of the JVP, the government cannot be overthrown. Being unsure of the JVP’s position, even those who are disgruntled with the Rajapaksa’s are hedging their bets and staying put without committing themselves. The frustration arising from this stalemate was beginning to tell more so on the SLFP(M) leaderhip than on the UNP leadership. At the Anuradhapura Jana Rela, Mangala Samaraweera had issued an ultimatum to the JVP saying that if they did not help the UNP and SLFP(M) to topple the government, they would hold a demonstration in front of the JVP headquarters.

The JVP was livid about such threats being made against them and Wimal Weerawansa lashed out at Samaraweera last week at a seminar held in Matara. He said that the JVP was not afraid of such threats and that their party would not be intimidated into supporting someone else’s political agenda. Over the past several months the good relationship which existed between Samaraweera and the JVP has deteriorated to the stage where they were now exchanging threats and challenges. Despite the fact that the frustration arising from the lack of cooperation from the JVP was telling on him as much as it was on Samaraweera, the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinhe adopted a much more diplomatic course of action by talking to the JVP MPs individually with a view to convincing them to go against the government.

Despite the long standing political and ideological antagonism that has existed between the JVP and the UNP, the UNP leader never lost his cool. In fact it is this very history of mutual hostility that would have motivated Wickremesinghe to tread warily with regard to the JVP. But Samaraweera, who has been close to the JVP for many years, tended to take them for granted. But by issuing ultimatums to the JVP, Samaraweera has plunged the entire joint front into a crisis. It was only days ago that Wickremesinghe had advised the UNP working committee that the JVP has been defending the government while being critical of it on certain issues. Despite this, no one in the UNP should say anything that might antagonize the JVP. Even though Wickremesinghe gave this advise to his party people, he seems to have forgotten to tell Samaraweera to be careful about what he says; or Samaraweera has not accepted this sensible advice.

UNP speechless and helpless

The present columnist asked a senior UNPer what the party has to say about Samaraweera’s ultimatum to the JVP. The answer we got was that it was a matter between Samaraweera and the JVP. When we argued that Samaraweera was the UNP’s main coalition partner and that whatever he says or does also affects the UNP and therefore the UNP has to say something about the mess created by Samaraweera, the answer we got was that the UNP was waiting for Samaraweera himself to clear up the mess he has made with the JVP. Until a couple of weeks ago, the JVP did not figure in a big way in the UNP’s calculations. This was a blind spot in their strategy. Even when the UNP signed the MOU with the SLFP(M), they did not factor the JVP presence.

Samaraweera was to be given the deputy premier’s post if he brought in 18 SLFP MPs, but they did not realize that even this would not have brought down the government if the JVP did not fall in line with them. It was only after the CWC ministers resigned from their portfolios and nothing happened that the UNP came to the realization that even with 18 MPs from the SLFP and the MPs of both the CWC and the SLMC, they would still not have the numbers to topple the government in parliament if the JVP decided to stand by the government.

Whether this mess can be cleared up is another question altogether. What has been said has been said, and nothing but an abject apology from Samaraweera can undo the damage done. The UNP leadership should have heeded the advice given by S.B.Dissaayake and others before the MOU was signed with the Mangala-Sripathy duo. What these party seniors had advised their leader to do, was to get Mangala and Sripathy to join the anti-government front that the JVP had formed. The JVP in fact was very keen that Mangala and Sripathy should join their front and not the UNP. We reported that Somawansa Amarasinghe accompanied by the entire JVP high command, had in fact held talks with Mangala to persuade him to join their front. Even at that stage, Mangala and the JVP had already been at loggerheads. We reported that the JVP had refused to fall in line with Mangala when he launched his attack on the Rajapaksa government accusing it of having carried out political abductions and extra-judicial killings and so on.

The S.B.Dissanayake formula

Mangala had hit back at the JVP by getting his sidekick Tiran Alles to stop printing the JVP newspaper ‘Lanka’ at his press. The result was the paper had to close down. Despite these problems, when Mangala crossed over to the opposition, the JVP let bygones be bygones and genuinely extended their hand of friendship to Mangala and Sripathy. In the opinion of S.B.Dissanayake and other party seniors, this was a golden opportunity to ‘broadbase’ the JVP. His argument was that if Mangala and Sripathy had joined the JVP’s popular front against the government, there would be for the first time a non-JVP element within the JVP. The UNP could then have gradually formed a friendship with this broadbased popular front, using the good offices of Mangala and Sripathy and then come to an agreement to oppose the government on matters agreed on by both sides. That way, a working relationship could have been built up between the UNP and the JVP.

In the opinion of these party seniors, because the co-operation of the JVP was absolutely vital for their political program of defeating the government in parliament, using Mangala as a conduit to the JVP was the best chance that they had. But Wickremesinghe, who was obviously in a hurry to wipe off some of the opprobrium resulting from the exodus of eighteen UNP MPs to the government, seems to have been in a hurry to take in Mangala and Sripathy. Because of this unseemly hurry, the broader political strategy was not taken into consideration and hence the present mess. We explained on earlier occasions, that because of ideological and political differences, it was difficult in any case for the JVP to co-operate with the UNP. Now with the contradictions assuming a more personal note, it will be interesting to see how the UNP handles this issue.

Without the JVP, there would be no point at all in the CWC, SLMC or dissidents from the SLFP crossing the floor, as all that would happen is that they would lose their positions without the government falling. Since the government cannot be defeated in parliament, no one is really interested in defecting, resulting in a stalemate for the UNP.

When the JVP politburo met last week, the main item discussed was the program of action the British were planning with regard to Sri Lanka. Tilvin Silva said that Britain was trying to promote separatism in Sri Lanka, using words such as ‘peace’, ‘human rights’ and ‘humanitarian assistance’. Wimal Weerawansa stated that the British High Commissioner was not doing what he should be doing, but overstepping his boundaries. The politburo discussed at length the ``international conspiracy’’ against Sri Lanka and came to the conclusion that Ranil Wickremesinghe would do anything to come into power and that he was completely subservient to these international forces. Tilvin Silva said that Wickremesinghe would not mind the country once again becoming a British colony provided he got to rule over it. The conclusion that the politburo came to was that Wickremesinghe was inviting the people to jump from the SLFP frying pan into the UNP fire. The upshot of all this being that the JVP sees the UNP as much of an enemy as the international conspirators it always talks about.

Making JR turn in his grave

This seems to be a period in which the UNP does things without much foresight. A bizarre thing that the UNP did last Thursday, was to hold a demonstration in front of the Bambalapitiya head quarters of the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, against their floating a bond issue for 500 million USD. The demonstration was led by Tissa Attanayake, John Amaratunga, and Ravi Karunanayke and was therefore a very official UNP protest, and not the kind of political sideshow that Mervyn Silva was used for by both the SLFP and the UNP. Earlier, the UNP leader had made public statements to the effect that they would not honour the loan agreement entered into. Not stopping at this, he even wrote to the HSBC, Barclay’s Bank and J.P.Morgan which were also involved in the bond issue, saying they would not honour the loan.

One would think that the protest would end at that, because this after all, was a legitimate government which was dealing with prestigious international financial institutions. But for the UNP to be involved in a JVP style action in front of a major international bank would have made JRJ turn in his grave. The question that arises is what has the HSBC done wrong that they should be subject to siege in this manner? They were simply carrying out their normal banking function, and it was not they who forced the Sri Lankan government to take this loan. It would have been more appropriate to have held the demonstration in front of the finance ministry instead of the HSBC, because according to Wickremesinghe, the reason why he was against the loan was because the people of Sri Lanka were going to be saddled with the debt servicing. If that were the case, then he should be protesting against those who decided to take the loan not against those who were going to raise the money.

Actions like this will help convince many ordinary folk in this country, that the stories that the government has been floating to the effect that Wickremesinghe has been touring the world trying to stop foreign aid from coming into the country, are all true. Their choice of the HSBC headquarters shows that they were trying to bring undue pressure on the bank – an action which is completely out of character for the hitherto private sector friendly UNP. This demonstration was held only last week, so the repercussions will take some time to become apparent. The private sector must be reeling from this blow.

Mangala Samaraweera’s ultimatum to the JVP, and the UNP’s demonstration in front of the HSBC headquarters, smacks of absolute desperation. But are the people of this country actually as desperate as they are, for a change of government?

What do the people really think?

Samaraweera had apparently been telling friends that the Jana Rela held in Nittambuwa was the largest crowd ever to assemble in the Nittamabuwa public stadium - the best that is, even compared to the huge rallies in Nittambuwa held during Chandrika’s heyday! But we pointed out in this column that the Sirisa/MTV footage of this meeting revealed that there were almost no young people present. It was a rally of middle aged UNP faithful. The UNP faithful have after spending so many years in opposition, have become like the JVP faithful – unfailingly attending every meeting held in their area in the hope that they would soon be in power. Their hopes have also been inflamed by the UNP leadership to such a pitch that it has become a do or die battle. If the UNP leadership fails to deliver power to their rank and file soon, they are just going to lie down and refuse to stand up again. Hence the several acts of desperation that we have been witnessing. They are throwing everything they have got against the government, even trying to invoke the gods against the Rajapaksa regime, Last week, the UNP held a pooja at the Munneswaram Kovil with the participation of Joseph Michael Perera, Tissa Attanayake, and Lakshman Kiriella, John Amaratunga and Champika Premadasa, where four thousand coconuts were smashed, calling on the gods to bring down the government.

When the UNP political affairs committee met last week, party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe had said that they should intensify their campaign of direct action against the government. It has now become routine for the UNP leader to urge his party men to even greater efforts, even though the UNP is now more active than they have been for the past two decades. What Wickremesinghe means by intensifying their campaign is not very clear because they have been holding one major Jana Rela meeting every week in addition to many other smaller events. At this political affairs committee meeting in fact, Wickremesinghe had discussed the question whether they should increase the number of meetings they have been having! Another point discussed had been the course of action they should take during the budget.

Then they appointed a committee comprising of Tissa Attanayake, Lakshman Kiriella, Gayantha Karunatilleke, Vajira Abeywardene and P.Harrison to oversee the campaign of direct action against the government. The only way to intensify their campaign against the government any further, is to smash 6,000 coconuts instead of 4,000. Even the 4,000 coconuts at Munneswaram must be an all time Sri Lanka record.

Even though the UNP is intent on breaking all political records with their campaign against the government, are the people really interested, or are they just bemused spectators? There are literally millions of people in this country from the families of the humble housemaids up to top business people who actually benefit when the rupee depreciates against foreign currency. There are many people who anxiously scan the exchange rates everyday to see whether they have gained or lost. The losing taking place when the rupee appreciates. Prosperity does not always mean an appreciation in the currency. The prosperity of China is partly because of the undervalued yuan. Then again, author Malinga Herman Gunaratne, a planter by profession told the present columnist the prices paid for green leaf has almost doubled over the past few months, thus benefiting thousands of tea smallholders. Raw rubber prices have also been very high for quite some time now, and cinnamon, a major product in the southern province, has been fetching over Rs 600 a kilo. Despite the detection of LTTE vehicle bombs with over 1000 Kg of plastic explosives, the hotels in many parts of the country are doing a roaring trade with 100% occupancy even before the tourist season has started.

Even the industrial sector is doing much better than expected. As Prof G.L.Peiris has been pointing out to foreign audiences, the garment sector which was expected to go into a tail spin after the quota system was done away with in early 2005, is doing better than ever before, with our industrialists concentrating on niche markets such as lingerie and other high value products. Reasons like this may in fact result in the HSBC mediated 500 million USD bond issue succeeding. In purely business terms, Sri Lanka is a still a fairly good bet. One of the characteristics of this country is that a little foreign exchange goes a very long way. Last week, Minister Peiris, was in the Maldives trying to increase fresh fruit and vegetable exports to that country. Even a market as small as the Maldives is enough to create a boom in the vegetable and fresh produce sector in Sri Lanka. In such circumstances, to expect the people to be absolutely desperate for a change of government may not be very realistic.

The ‘tel beheth’ strategy

A widely publicized meeting between Wickremesinghe and Chandrika Kumaratunga took place last week. What was discussed was not divulged to the press, but at a meeting which lasted only forty five minutes, nothing of substance could have been discussed. Kumaratunga was widely expected to appear on the UNP-SLFP(M) stage at the Nittambuwa Jana Rela, but she did not turn up for the meeting. But there are rumours to say that she visited the venue of the meeting while it was being decorated, which is quite possible, as Nittambuwa is the heart of her family fiefdom Attanagalle. One old Lake House hand compared this to Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike driving slowly past Lake House after the bill to nationalize it had been passed in parliament. This was a case of surveying the conquest. The exact nature of Chandrika’s involvement in the SLFP(M) is not yet clear. The chances are that she will keep her planned moves to herself until the last moment the same way she did during the BNP days.

One thing that is clear, is that Chandrika’s sympathies are with the SLFP(M) rather than the SLFP proper, just as her sympathies were with the UNP during the 2005 presidential election. For the UNP, she has become something like the curiosities that tel beheth karayas at bus stands routinely use to retain the attention of their audience. When the attention of the audience begins to flag, the tel beheth seller begins to talk about a curiosity that he has on display. When he gets their attention back, he continues with his sales pitch. Chandrika is now being used by the UNP for this purpose. Last week’s meeting appears to have been strategically scheduled to keep public attention focused on the UNP-SLFP(M) coalition despite the stalemate resulting from the JVP’s refusal to co-operate.