Attempts have been made to identify the main thrust of the present budget. Some have claimed it is aimed at boosting the local industries. The critics of the government are pooh-poohing the budget as being neither here nor there. But, a closer look will reveal that it has all the characteristics of a war budget with the defence expenditure having recorded a quantum leap from Rs. 63 billion to Rs. 117 billion.

The military is poised to move in to the Wanni and the LTTE is experiencing a severe shortage of ammunition and manpower. For the first time it has lost both Jaffna and the East at the same time and is without the means of replenishing its stocks. If the government secures the passages of its budget and everything goes as planned, Prabhakaran will certainly face a Vadamarachchi like situation sooner or later. (In 1987, Prabhakaran, whom the military almost accounted for in Vadamarachchi, was rescued by India.)

The state media claims that LTTE is throwing millions of US dollars around to engineer the downfall of the Rajapaksa government. We are being told about an LTTE financier's visit to Colombo with a huge number of wads of dollar notes to lure some government MP to defect. Of the government pachagandists' claims, the discerning may say: "Cum grano salis!" But, when today's crucial vote is taken, we will know whether there is any truth in that claim.

The Rathu Sahodarayas, according to stories being posted on the Conventional Internet (read the grapevine), are divided over the budget vote. Some of them, influenced by the handlers of the SLFP dissidents, it is being claimed, have sided with the Jumbos and others are in President Rajapaska's pocket. Any such division should be reflected in the way they vote today. Should some more ruling party MPs do a Wijedasa Rajapakshe, the government which seeks more funds for its war effort through the current budget would depend on the JVP for its passage. If the JVP helped the Opposition scuttle the budget, it would give the lie to its much flaunted opposition to the LTTE; for, in such an eventuality, it would only be throwing a lifeline to Prabhakaran. If that ever happened, the Tiger chief would pay a floral tribute to the slain JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera when he commemorates fallen heroes shortly.

Opposition and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is in the same predicament as a beleaguered skipper who is required to score a six in the last ball not only to prevent an ignominious whitewash but also to retain his captaincy which others want him to be stripped of because of his poor performance and an attendant string of losses. Is he equal to the task?

The SLFP dissidents, too, will have to either deliver at today's vote or depart. The UNP old timers haven't taken kindly to them, as they have catapulted themselves to the party's inner circle. Mangala is being projected as the Prime Minister in a Jathika Sabha government to be formed. Should Mangala fail to muster the required numbers-he promised to bring at least 17 government MPs to the UNP-to shoot down the budget, he would be the first casualty of the Opposition's failure.

Many have high stakes in today's vote. However, in the final analysis, there are only two real contenders in today's showdown. They are President Rajapaksa and LTTE chief Prabhakaran. Others are only punters.

Tonight we will know the winner.