16.1.2008
By M. Rama Rao from New Delhi
President Mahinda Rajapakse has scrapped Norway brokered 2002 Ceasefire Agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The decision become effective from today (Jan 16) . The supervision of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, a group of Scandinavian monitors which reported on truce violations has ended. And the government in Colombo has begun to vigorously pursue 'war for peace' strategy.
To certain extent, the Rajapakse decision has something to do with the dynamics of Sri Lanka politics. His government badly needs the support of the Janata Vimukthi Perunuma (JVP) which is opposed to dialogue with Tamil Tigers. Some Tamil leaders like Douglas Devananda, who heads a Jaffna based party, EPDP, are also opposed to talks with LTTE chief. 'As long as Velupillai Prabhakaran is alive, the Tamil Tigers will never agree to peaceful settlement', Devananda, who is minister for Social Services and Social Welfare, told me.
He is a former militant and worked shoulder to shoulder with the Tigers. "LTTE always used peace talks to re-group and strengthen its bases. Agreed. Peace is essential. LTTE must join the peace process. But if it joins the peace talks whether now or at a future date, it is bound to put forward many unreasonable demands so that they could withdraw citing the government's unwillingness to accede to these demands."
Rajapakse smoked the peace pipe in the run up to his own election. In fact, there is the allegation that he had a tacit understanding with the LTTE so that his rival in the presidential election, Ranil Wickramasinghe could be defeated in the Tamil areas where the UNP leader is still popular. The understanding was in the nature of a trade off according to Mangala Samaraweera, who was a minister in the Rajapakse government and fell out with the President in 2007. The official denials were unconvincing, and at best appear as labored.
Rajapakse and his brother Gotabhaya Rajapakse, who is at the helm of defence ministry, have been publicly critical of Norway, the peace broker. The President has never minced words in ticking off Norway, who, he told me, is not honest middleman.
Studied non-cooperation, Colombo, expected, will force Norway to leave the scene. When that failed, series of charges were leveled that ranged from collision with Tiger chief Prabhakaran to funding him and arming him. Another charge that more or less got stuck was that Norway used the CFA as a smoke screen to penetrate the poor countryside in the North to spread Christianity.
Countless demonstrations were held against the Norwegians in front of their Embassy in Colombo, and burning the Norwegian flag became a norm rather than an exception of the show. Devananda's EPDP displayed coffins with dead men inside to demonstrate the failure of the CFA. The personal life of the Norwegian Special Envoy Erik Solheim was portrayed in the media, colored with malicious lies. The internet became a happy hunting ground for Norwegian bashing.
Analyst Kesara Abeywardena dubs CFA as a 'peace process that had failed to gain momentum'. He sees in the CFA's end a parallel to how India-Sri Lanka accord was shot down. "Those of us who witnessed the advent of the Indo- Sri Lanka Accord ("Accord") would remember how the shooting of the messenger was enacted at that time, when people in their thousands who supported the Accord were not only killed but also were told to boycott Indian goods", he wrote in The Daily Mirror (Jan 9, 2008) in his highly popular column.
Humanitarian agencies are concerned over the end of Ceasefire. Their fear is fresh violence could not only impact civilians but also impede aid delivery and jeopardize the safety of humanitarian workers. Reports say LTTE has ordered some of International NGOs located in Kilinochchi and Mullaithivu to vacate.
Some 118,000 people displaced by hostilities between the separatist LTTE and government security forces in northern districts would be at risk if a surge in fighting restricts movement and cuts off supply lines.
"We do have serious concerns that the conflict will intensify," said Zola Dowell of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) which oversees the UN's response in emergency situations. "That would have implications for humanitarian access to those most in need of assistance and for the safety and security of staff." She said UN agencies were reviewing their aid delivery strategies and preparing contingency plans for the security of humanitarian workers.
"It is very important that we retain the ability to provide humanitarian assistance to the affected population, especially the children and women affected by the conflict," said Gordon Weiss, spokesman of the UN Children's Fund, UNICEF. "In doing so, the safety of our staff must be guaranteed by all parties to the conflict."
Over 23,500 people have fled their homes in the north-western district of Mannar in the last few weeks, according to the UN's weekly report on internally displaced persons (IDPs). Agencies are also assisting IDPs in the northern rebel-held districts of Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu, and in government-held Vavuniya. Some agencies, including the World Food Programme, have taken the LTTE warnings seriously and reduced or removed staff from high risk areas.
Child soldiers
Concern has also been expressed over the prospect of an increase in the recruitment of child soldiers by the LTTE if fighting escalates. "That would be one of the implications if the conflict intensifies," said Zola Dowell.
UNICEF has charged the LTTE with continuing to use children as combatants, despite assurances that it would release all underage soldiers. UNICEF estimates based on reports by parents and independent verification show there are 1,448 children in the LTTE's ranks. Of them, 290 are below 18 years, while others were underage when they were recruited and are now over 18.
A breakaway faction of the LTTE, the Karuna group, which was aligned with Rajapakse government till recently, is blamed for conscripting youngsters in eastern districts. UNICEF figures show there are 233 child soldiers in this group, 169 under 18, and 54 who were under 18 when they were recruited. Expectedly, both the LTTE and Karuna faction have disputed these numbers but the UNICEF says its figures are only one-third of the number recruited.
The New Year opened on a grim note for Sri Lanka. Going by the latest escalation of violence, 2008 may turn out to be the year of war for the island nation. In the tit-for- tat killings, both sides have shared the honours equally, more or less in the first fortnight.
Government forces killed Tigers' intelligence chief, Shanmuganathan Ravishankar, also known as Colonel Charles. A big blow to LTTE it was because only two months back SP Thamilselvan, the Tiger's political wing leader, was killed in an air raid and only last month, the government claimed that Prabhakaran himself was seriously injured in an air raid on his bunker.
The Tiger's tally was no less impressive. They had gunned down a Tamil lawmaker, T Maheswaran, as he was offering New Year prayers at a Colombo temple. Minister for construction D. M. Dassanayake, a hardliner, was killed by a roadside bomb blast near the town of Ja-Ela, 12 miles (20km) north of Colombo, on the road to the international airport. He had been coordinating efforts to rebuild the Eastern Province after government forces drove the Tigers from most of the area in July.
Dassanayake's death is the first assassination of a senior Sri Lankan official since June 2006, when the rebels killed Major-General Parami Kulatunga, the country's third-highest-ranking military officer.
With some 5,000 people killed in the last two years, the ceasefire was nothing more than a piece of paper. More than 70,000 people have been killed since fighting broke out in 1983 for an independent 'Elam' (State) for the Sri Lankan Tamil minority, who claim discrimination by the majority Sinhalese. Now the Sri Lankan government will "intensify and expedite" its war preparations, says analyst DBS Jeyaraj.
War Preparation
Already, President Rajapakse has asked the people to 'rally round Govt' to liberate Northern masses. Speaking at Bata Atha, Hungama, after inaugurating an Agro-Technology Park, he declared "Fragmentation of our Motherland will not be permitted".
"Our country, your Motherland, should be your foremost priority and not your job or standing. Otherwise, your ancestors and your generations to come, will not only rebuke and curse you, but also rebuke and curse your graveyards", President Rajapaksa thundered and said, "Kindly grant me the opportunity to liberate the innocent and miserable masses of the North who are in grave and imminent danger at the hands of the LTTE. They are deprived of their basic fundamental rights, facilities and the freedom which the people elsewhere in the country cherish and enjoy".
The CFA was a result of the failure of the war for peace strategy. It was President Chandrika Kumaratunga who invited the Norwegians as facilitators when her strategy of war for peace became a colossal failure and when over ten thousand soldiers died in humiliating battle defeats.
Chandrika's quarrel with Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe made her turn to JVP for support and to please them she wrecked the CFA, Ranil had conceived, with the help of Mangala Samaraweera and others.
Rajapakse has followed Chandrika foot-steps in a manner of speaking. He depends on JVP for his survival in Parliament since his party doesn't enjoy comfortable majority even after he had engineered defections from the UNP to the treasury benches. JVP has just bailed him out on the budget. Abrogation of CFA is his way of thanks giving.
JVP Propaganda Secretary Wimal Weerawansa is naturally pleased. With a beaming smile, he recalled that his party had rejected the Ranil agreement with LTTE as it conceded too much ground to the Tigers and conferred them the status of sole Tamil voice and defacto ruler of Tamil North. Wimal's criticism has some merit.
CFA to a certain extent and the aborted 'accord' to a large extent were designed to facilitate a multi ethnic and plural society where both sides would explore ways and means of resolving the Tamil National Question.
While Prabhakaran played hide and seek with CFA, and the Accord, the sin of Maximalism, as a columnist likes to describe the policies of majority Sinhala community, stood in the way of any meaningful share to the minority in the power calculus. Like all his predecessors, Rajapakse have not gone beyond lip service on devolution of powers to Tamil dominated areas. The All Party Representatives Committee he has set up to work out the devolution package has virtually become defunct.
Global Reaction
India, the next door Big Brother, surprised Colombo with its reaction. It was mild though nuanced. Delhi said, India strongly believes that there is no military solution to the Sri Lankan conflict. "What is required is a settlement of political, constitutional and other issues within the framework of united Sri Lanka with which all communities are comfortable. It is only through such a settlement that a lasting peace can return to the troubled nation", the official statement said.
Shortly afterwards, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee remarked Sri Lanka will be justified to proceed against LTTE under the laws of the land.
These two statements made President Rajapakse to sport a smile in relief. He expected international opinion to be favorable as the LTTE is, according to the United States and India, a big terrorist organization, which had helped al Qaeda to grow big. He did not expect US sanctions on arms sales to Colombo, though.
Washington action is no worry because, as defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella says, military hardware purchased from the US has been minimal. India has not been providing any offensive items. The Rajapakse brothers are shopping for their military wares mostly in Pakistan and to certain extent in Central Asian Republics. While the Generals are running all the way to their banks in Islamabad, Pak supplies have raised a stink in Colombo. Rajapakses will find it difficult to weather the storm if their favorite army chief, who is on an extension, fails to 'deliver' the Tigers, as he promised in just less than six months.
How many deadlines will the Sinhalese establishment continue to set up for itself to defeat the Tigers, asks Pazha Nedumaran, a staunch LTTE supporter, who is heading the Chennai based Tamil Eelam Liberation Coordination Committee comprising various political parties.
Such deadlines are nothing new for the Sinhala Army or the Sri Lankan government. "This has been going on from the time of former President J R Jayawadane. Lalitha Athulath Mudali (National Security Minister) had issued a similar deadline but ironically it was he who had died (he was killed by the Tigers)", Nedumaran said.
Historical Experience
Historically, no army can deliver peace. This is the experience of the US in Iraq. It is the Indian experience in its insurgency ridden north-east. Troops can clear the road to peace. Dialogue is the only way for lasting peace.
Walls separating the majority and minority communities must be brought down. The feeling of alienation will aggravate anger, despair and discord. Share to the minority community in the power structure as equal partners is the only way out. There are several models of power sharing and devolution nearer home to Sri Lanka in India.
Political will is essential on the part of the ruling class for a dialogue to become meaningful. Politicking and search for quick fix solutions will lead Colombo no where more so when its own military prowess with or without Pakistan help are any thing great to write about.
Rajapakse's focus on the south to the exclusion of the North will end up with blood on his hands. A January 9 report in Asian Tribune said the Tigers have moved to target unarmed civilians in the urban areas.
The strategists may view the tactic as a desperate move on the part of Tigers, 'who are facing defeat on all fronts'.
But a politician will be disturbed. Such attacks have the potential to turn the people against the government of the day.
President Mahinda Rajapakse is a politician to the core. So he cannot be unmindful of changed Tiger game plan. Also to the fact that moderates of all three communities, Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim have begun to lose confidence and hope in the Rajapaksa administration that it is genuinely committed or capable of evolving a comprehensive political solution for the decades old conflict.
Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa is right that a fair political solution must be for the Tamil people and not for the LTTE. He is wrong, however, to believe that such a solution can be viable only upon the total decapitation of the LTTE.
He and his elder brother appear to overlook that significant weakening of the LTTE strengthens the other extreme Sinhalese-Buddhist forces, thereby, generating consensus towards a cohesive arrangement, politically impossible.
The inability of All Party Representatives Committee (APRC) to explore and recommend a suitable proposal to end the ethnic issue even after three years of labor should serve as a wake up call for Rajapakse and his advisors.
Courtesy - Asian
Tribune